Today's New York Times has a good article explaining how many in the younger generation are not going to be receiving much, if any, of an inheritance from their middle-class parents. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/21/busine ss/yourmoney/21money.html
The money that they might have received in many other societies, elsewhere, here is being siphoned away by the rapidly escalating costs of medical care and other increased costs that did not exist for generations past (who typically died much earlier, for example, when Social Security was instituted in 1934, the average lifespan was 63.)
This leads me to speculate on where this all is taking us.
Obviously, the well-to do - who often have long term care insurance, annuities, etc, and who can afford those costs and then some, can still expect substantial windfalls due to the low inheritance tax, which leads to extreme concentration of wealth (at the extremes - as the US is becoming a so called "M society")
Society is changing too. Nobody knows how long they may be able to work. Working society may simply not need them, even if they need work.
Technology is playing a big part in this. We may be hading into a post-industrial world, but most of us have that option that exists today of working on we don't have enough saved up to 'retire'?
For many of us, those without highly develped and still current skillsets, probably not.
Looking into the future, its not hard to see a future where the traditional methods of earning a living are largely absent, due to technological improvements. (People will no longer be employed in automated manufacturing except as technicians and designers)
'Safe' fields of employment such as the sciences, medicine and the arts, will be highly competitive. Many (most?) will live on the fringes of society, marginalized and cut off from access to credit or income by their lack of skills and connections. Many will be mired in debt, as will their communities and nations.
In this society, only the rich will inherit, but, due to concentration of wealth, much of the wealth in circulation will increasingly "be inherited wealth" or investment income. It won't be from wages from work. And it will go increasingly to those with the surplus wealth to save. Not the middle or lower classes.
American society may end up resembling that of countries like Brazil and India.
The wealthy will live guarded lives of conspicuous consumption in gated communities and even, gated nations. (Tax havens, often in isolated areas geographically?)
Most probably, they will be able to shield most of their wealth from taxes by maintaining residence in multiple places and shifting money away from the eyes of governments to tax them. They will have lots of options.
One can even see the problem of disinvestment becoming international.
Tax havens with low costs of services, and low pension obligations, will attract the increasingly mobile rich, and their money, while the poor will live in the crumbling and by then, almost completely looted 'democracies'. (Everything that is not nailed down will probably have been stolen or taxed away by the inefficient governments, who will use the money partly to employ the well connected.)
|
|
|
Permalink :: 5 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.